Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.519401 30.482791 33.851185 38.014465 43.096305 49.201241 57.258897
2025-05-25 22.908433 26.578330 31.104322 37.267520 45.743105 57.520137 76.280931
2025-06-01 19.916713 23.867732 29.035395 36.615991 48.125722 66.403854 101.913439
2025-06-08 17.786877 21.832195 27.363943 35.973219 50.189814 75.746801 137.195422
2025-06-15 16.226004 20.296949 26.066680 35.502256 52.284846 86.279627 190.254217
2025-06-22 15.048694 19.124398 25.079042 35.249444 54.621271 98.841582 279.600159
2025-06-29 13.966676 17.957081 23.920510 34.450399 55.634856 109.243625 407.649421
2025-07-06 13.568683 17.740658 24.185015 36.148394 62.390582 141.853364 1108.992672
2025-07-13 12.840346 16.948420 23.415279 35.779610 64.389687 162.373714 3403.801351
2025-07-20 12.309132 16.410130 22.996793 35.999351 67.954929 195.457833 NaN
2025-07-27 11.853525 15.949678 22.653465 36.298719 71.912709 240.437345 NaN
2025-08-03 11.391357 15.441641 22.171620 36.219396 74.817156 289.948764 NaN
2025-08-10 10.893723 14.849462 21.498192 35.647576 76.142645 337.001769 NaN
2025-08-17 10.529895 14.453208 21.142837 35.733897 79.790544 431.882298 NaN
2025-08-24 10.155237 14.015131 20.671965 35.481935 82.238955 542.506612 NaN
2025-08-31 9.789144 13.569986 20.151521 35.036387 83.852131 674.149847 NaN
2025-09-07 9.461118 13.171090 19.687360 34.661799 85.672115 869.980244 NaN
2025-09-14 9.177299 12.832253 19.311935 34.454396 88.198002 1220.811677 NaN
2025-09-21 8.854862 12.411509 18.749550 33.700846 88.027203 1511.460916 NaN
2025-09-28 8.804147 12.456091 19.095156 35.345577 100.353589 8419.370615 NaN
2025-10-05 8.557367 12.145255 18.712401 34.993985 102.441610 51508.402359 NaN
2025-10-12 8.379586 11.947581 18.543395 35.207616 108.002269 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.218985 11.772548 18.407613 35.497028 114.469048 NaN NaN